Russian Federation
Russian Federation
graduate student
Russian Federation
GRNTI 44.31 Теплоэнергетика. Теплотехника
GRNTI 45.01 Общие вопросы электротехники
GRNTI 55.42 Двигателестроение
GRNTI 55.45 Судостроение
GRNTI 73.34 Водный транспорт
The paper highlights the operation processes at the terminals of the transport node, which, to a considerable extent, are defined by arrival different types of cargo. The cargo is usually delivered from the suppliers’ enterprises with the help of transport facilities (by train/motor transport). To plan the efficient functioning of the sea terminal there should be used the methods of forecasting input cargo flows. It has been stated that most works devoted to forecasting traffic flows on cargo terminals are recommended to use information from the history (for which it is nec-essary to draw the arrays of well-known results of forecasting in different situation) based on the long-term analysis of the terminal operation. The above method of forecasting is of little use, when the supplier network and destinations of the cargo change frequently. A certain difficulty can pre-sent the choice of factors that define the situation at the sea terminal and the size of forecasted parameters of the cargo flow. There has been given an example of the practical forecasting of cargo arrival for handling at the sea terminal. The practical implementation of the formal dependence of forecasting the cargo arrival for processing in the direction “coast-sea” at the marine terminal is presented in the sequence of four blocks: 1) the necessary values are calculated; 2) the arrived consignments are selected that have been sent on the same day and satisfy the columns of the matrix; 3) posterior probabilities for the columns of the matrix are calculated; 4) forecasting of consignments arrival is calculated. In the proposed universal method of forecasting the arrival of goods to the marine terminal in the transport hub in the coast-sea processing directions there is used not only statistic data on the duration of cargo transportation to the marine terminal, but also operational information on the arrival of individual consignments
forecast, time, arrival, cargo, terminal
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