DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS OF TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF INVESTMENTS IN SEAPORT STEVEDORING SYSTEMS
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The purpose of this paper is to consider the concepts that define the role and objectives of seaports. The static and dynamic methods for assessing economic and financial efficiency of investments are analyzed. The emphasis is made on the substantiation of the selection criteria for evaluating investments in stevedoring seaport systems. The measurement methodology for determining the optimal terminal technical configuration for ship handling process is proposed. The provided methodology is based on two stages. During the first stage, within one of the considered technologies, the minimum, maximum and optimum number of production lines are determined. As a criterion for choosing the optimal amount of technological lines, the indicator NPV is used. To evaluate the effectiveness of additional technological line input beyond the minimum amount it is offered to use a methodology of account of additional port income reducing the idle time of the ships in the port. The second step presupposes the comparison of the effectiveness of various technological options, maintaining the technical configuration of the stevedoring port systems. At the same time, a set of indicators and the methodology for calculating income and expenses are stated, and as a measure of the effectiveness of investments, NPV is used.

Keywords:
seaport, stevedoring system, economic efficiency, technological line, investments, performance indicators, optimal option, net present value (NPV), idle time of ships
Text
Introduction With the globalization of the world economy, a significant increase in traffic between countries and continents significantly increases the role and importance of seaports. Development of transport and technological systems, the use of new techniques and technologies are placing new demands on technical equipment of ports, which are the key steps in the transport chain (system). In these circumstances, special attention is paid to the modernization and construction of new stevedoring systems equipped with modern handling equipment. Validation of technology, quality and quantity of cargo handling equipment, their optimization has a significant impact on the economic efficiency of the port. The right decision in investments in seaports handling equipment (terminals) depends on the economic environment in which the ports are functioning, the purpose of their activities and, accordingly, the methods of decision making. First of all, we are speaking about the justification for choosing indicators to measure the effectiveness of investment in cargo handling terminals and methods to determine the best terminal technical configuration equipment of cargo handling (stevedore) seaport system. The system of indicators and criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of investments in seaports is in direct proportion to that concept, which holds the state in defining the role and objectives of seaports. There are macroeconomic and microeconomic concepts. Within the macroeconomic concept, the operation of the system of seaports should be directed at the development of the state as a whole. The objectives of the national port system should prevail over the goals of each port and each operator, as well. From an economic point of view, this goal is reflected in the actions aimed at minimizing the total costs associated with the passage of goods through the ports of the national port system. The bodies of state power are directly involved in the creation, development and operation of the fleet and ports. Such a concept is characteristic of the ports in the centralized economy. Microeconomic concept envisages that the main purpose of the functioning of the seaport is to achieve the profitability of capital investments and to gain maximum profits. It is believed that in the normal operation of competition and the market economy, there are reduced costs, increased quality and quantity of services, and thus, indirectly it serves the purpose of society and the state. In the world practice, there are different methods of evaluating the financial and economic efficiency of investment. There are static (simple) and dynamic (based on the theory of the time value of services) methods. Macroeconomic concept provides mainly the assessment and calculation of economic (from the position of society) and budgetary (the perspective of the State) efficiency of investment projects. For these purposes, static methods are used, providing the definition and assessment of the following key indicators: - overall economic efficiency Кe; - comparative cost-effectiveness Ес; - payback period for current Тp; - minimum reduced expenditures Ei.. The indicators of profitability and the amortization period of the investment object are also used. When evaluating the economic efficiency of capital expenditures in cargo turn-over seaports complexes, criterion for choosing the best option is an indicator of reduced costs for cargo turn-over (fleet - port) complex, i. e. the best option with a minimum value of this index: C = (O + CI)port + (O + CI)fleet, (O + CI)port - port reduced costs (operational expenses and capital investments); (O + CI)fleet - fleet reduced costs. It should be noted that not only the reduced costs for the port, but also the projected costs to the fleet, which were supposed to use on cargo handling terminals, should be taken into account. It can be explained by the fact that a large variety of the equipment used at cargo terminals differ by its specification and its quantity, which leads to different idle time of ship for stevedore operations. Variants with great intensity of stevedore operations reduce the idle time of ships, and therefore, reduce their costs, improve the derivative ability of the fleet and thereafter its revenues. Such an approach (at least cost imposed by cargo turn-over seaport system) was apparently justified in terms of the centralized economy, where the cost per port as well as the fleet carried out the state. In current market conditions, the use of indicators discussed above is highly controversial for the following reasons. First, the evaluation is done from the standpoint of the national (nation-wide) level, while the main purpose of the seaport, the stevedoring company or another investor is efficiency and maximum profit. In this case, the fleet component of the economic impact (reduction of operating costs and capital investment on the fleet with an increase in the intensity of cargo operations) is subject to the interests of shipping companies and ports can be directly taken into account when measuring the effectiveness of investments. Secondly, all of the above mentioned static indicators evaluating the effectiveness of investments do not include the time factor. However, due to the relative simplicity of their calculation they give certain information to make investment decisions at an early stage. The evaluation of investments in maritime transport in recent years has attracted a lot of attention. Thus, [1] analyzes the decision-making process on investment projects, including preliminary stage in which conclusions are drawn about the feasibility of the project. Then it is proposed to make financial and economic evaluation of the project in terms of the net present value of the project NPV, benefit-cost, payback period, rate of return - IRR and others, and to take action on the draft on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of all financial economic indicators. The need to change the traditional state-owned criteria of economic efficiency of investments is referred to in [2], which proposes in accordance with market conditions to use the indicators of the payback period, net present value, return on investment and a number of others. Evaluation of investments in port mechanization is discussed in paper [3]. It is proposed in a mathematical model of a problem to use the replenishment rate NPV, proving the need for pre- engineering, and then, carry out the selection criteria of effectiveness. However, in our view, the need for equipment is determined on the basis of calculations of the selected criterion of efficiency of investment in handling stevedoring equipment, and not vice versa. A number of factors is analyzed and their quantitative characteristics are predicted on the basis of simulation modeling experiments [4], it is proposed to estimate investment costs in the design of port cargo turn-over complexes on the basis of the theory of inventory and queuing theory [5], the comparative analysis of the methods of study of the effectiveness of alternative investment projects for shipping companies is made [6] and others. So all the papers generally propose to evaluate the economic efficiency of investments using indicators based on the concept of discounting and accounting characteristics and conditions of a market economy. However, the issues of economic justification of investments in seaports handling complexes are not studied enough and, above all, it is due to the fact, that the methods to account for the influence of the parking of the vessels on choice of alternative technical equipment transshipment facilities are not well developed. As it is correctly pointed out in the paper [2], the development of the methods for evaluating investments for enterprises of maritime transport is an important task of scientific and practical workers. Taking into account all the information mentioned above, the main objectives of the study are: - selection criteria for evaluating investments in cargo handling (stevedore) system; - developing a method for determining the optimal number of technological lines (TL) tefor ship handling process; - substantiation of selecting the technology options and the equipment of the cargo handling port system. Objectives We should define the basic principles of evaluation of the effectiveness of investments in market conditions: 1. Evaluation of the investment return of capital is based on a factor of cash flow, which is formed by the sum of net income and depreciation expenses during the period of operation of the investment project. 2. The reduction to the current value of both the amounts of cash flow and capital investment, which are determined during the life of the investment project. 3. The discount rate should be set according to the degree of risk investment project and the liquidity of investments, with their direction in a risky project a higher interest rate should be used. These principles are fully implemented by using dynamic methods of evaluation of investment projects, among which the most widely used methods are the standard procedures developed by UNIDO (United National Development Organization) - United Nations Industrial Development. The main indicators in accordance with this method are the net present value, discounted payback period, profitability index, internal rate of return. Net present value (NPV) indicates that the investment will in future be compared to what is now invested, and represents the difference between the current, discounted based on the estimated interest rate, the cost of investment income and the value of the initial investment costs: , - the net cash flow for the period t; I - the initial investment cost; p - the discount rate; t - number of year; n - the period of the "life" of investment. Net cash flows are usually a net profit after tax plus depreciation and amortization. If investments are not carried out at the same time, the NPV is defined as follows: . With a positive NPV, the project is acceptable; the comparison of several options for investment projects, the project with the highest NPV is chosen. The discounted payback period (tdok) defines the period during which the NPV becomes and remains in future a positive value. Profitability Index (PI) is defined as the ratio of the present value of cash flows to the initial investment. When making investments decisions, only those projects, for which the profitability index is greater than one, are considered. Internal rate of income (Internal Rate of Return - IRR) is the discount rate p0, in which the sum of the discounted cash flows is equal to the initial investment cost. If p0 is higher than the selected by investors’ discount rate p, then the investment can be made in this project. Summing the discussed above known indicators of evaluation of investments, we have to note that NPV is the main indicator to use, other indicators listed in essence derived from the NPV, must be taken into account as additional criteria for a comprehensive analysis of the various options for investment projects. Taking into account that the ports (stevedoring companies) in Ukraine, Russia and other CIS countries work in a market economy, as a measure of the effectiveness of investments in seaports cargo turn-over complexes will use the main indicator of the dynamic of cost - effectiveness - net present value NPV. Choice of the best technology option and technical configuration cargo terminals at sea ports is realized in the following sequence. First, the turnover process technology options that can be used in the technical equipment of the cargo terminal are identified. For each alternative technology the configuration of TL, which is a set of interaction of a certain order-handling machines, tools and workers engaged in the transferring of goods by a particular embodiment of cargo operations ("ship-to-warehouse", "vessel - w/d car", etc.). In this case, the formation of TL handling facilities should provide its best performance, determined by the master (mooring) operation process. For the evaluation and the selection of technical options of the cargo terminal handling equipment, it is proposed to use the methodology, providing two main stages: Stage I: Each option of alternative technology is determined by the numbers of TL, which will provide the handling of the given turnover cargo operations, with the best cost efficiency for seaport (stevedoring company). That is, economic comparison is made of the so-called ″same-type″ schemes of mechanization, differing in the number of TL, with identical composition of each production line according to the type and quantity of cargo handling equipment. Stage II: Economic comparison of the options under consideration and technologies is made and on the base of the selected measure in assessing the effectiveness of investments the best option is chosen. Determination of the optimal amount of technological lines The question of determining the number of TL on the quay (berth complex), the most favorable one for the port (I stage) is a key in assessing the economic efficiency of the technical equipment of the port complex. In the current Standards for technological design seaports (РД 31.3.05-97) defining the parameters and specifications established stevedoring seaport system, only possible intervals of the number of at the dock are determined. The solution of the problem of a particular amount of TL at the berth is up to the designers and investors. To solve the problem of determining the optimal number of TL at the berth (wharf) the following procedure is suggested and the main principles of which are: 1. Number of TL on the sea waterfront must provide a predetermined processing gross turnover and performance standards (intensity) set in "Body of customs port" - . 2. Maximum number of TL, which may be considered in the investment project, is limited by the amount of TL, which can be installed on a ship taking into account the conditions of its treatment in minimum time - . 3. The most effective (optimal) number of TL is within and, and is determined on the basis of obtaining by the port the largest value of NPV - . Definition of the minimum number of TL : , - the minimum number of TL lines that provides a specified cargo turn-over operations; - the minimum number of TL lines, which enables the cargo turn-over operations on the ship in normative terms. The definitions of and methodology are presented in paper [7]. Determination of the maximum number of TL The maximum number of TL for processing the vessel is provided with the technical possibility and expediency of the operation of mechanized lines on the base of: a) structural dimensions of the ship and the front of one TL; b) processing time of a limitation of the ship hold (groups of adjacent ship holds). , the maximum number of the TL, which can be delivered to the ship cargo turn-over operations, based on the length of the ship (minus the length of construction) and the front of the TL; the maximum number of the TL, which can be delivered to the processing vessel, based on the terms of its processing in the minimum time. Method of calculation and is given in paper [7]. Determination of the optimal number of TL options . The best TL option is chosen in terms of net present value NPV, i. e. option with the maximum NPV. The task of finding the optimal option is solved in the following sequence: 1. Drawn up by the arrangement options fromto - take the value and consistently add one line to thereby, obtain the arrangement of possible variants of TL, (), the effectiveness of which the port (stevedoring company) will evaluate using the NPV. 2. According to the basic case (variant), the total idle time of ships in port is determined when entering the port specified annual turnover for the reporting berth. Idle time in port during processing technological lines equals(base case), determined by the formula: Тi = Тl + Тsup + Тw, Тl - time of loading work, days; Тsup - time of supporting operations, not combined with freight, days; Тw - waiting time of berthing, days; the method of calculation Тl, Тsup, Тw is presented in [7]. The total idle time in port: Σ Тi = Тi nv, nc - number of ship visits during a year. 1. The comparative analysis of the effectiveness of the arrangement options (number of options of TL) is made, the effectiveness of each option is assessed by the NPV indicator. Besides, the specific characteristic of the comparative evaluation of the investment effectiveness in the considered variant is an evaluation of the feasibility of entering each additional technological line, i. e. if entry of additional TL has a positive effect for the port (the investor) based on the calculation of NPV, then this option is more acceptable than the previous one; if it has a negative effect, the entry of additional TL is inexpedient. The calculation of the net present value of entering the additional technological line is made by the formula, which provides a lump sum of investments, as the efficiency of one TL is being evaluated: , increase (decrease) in net present value when you enter additional TL; increase (decrease) in net cash flows for the period t; the initial investment cost for entering additional TL (the cost of cargo handling equipment, forming a TL); , - increase (decrease) in net profit from entering the additional TL; - increase in amortization costs from entering the additional TL; , - additional revenues from the input of TL; - additional operating costs when entering TL; - additional taxes when entering TL, including income tax. If you enter an additional technological line, the intensity of handling is increased and idle time of ships is reduced. The sources of additional port revenue from reduction of the lay days of ships, depending on the specific conditions of the port are as follows: 1. Dispatch (premium) for early termination ship handling cargo turnover operations compared with the standard processing time of the ship, provided in the "Code of Customs of the Port". 2. Increase in the lump-sum rate (the rate of cargo turnover operations) due to the increase in intensity of the ship handling and reduction of its lay time. 3. Attraction of additional traffic due to the increase in port competitiveness by accelerating the processing of ships. In the first case, the additional income (revenue) from entering the TL is defined as: , - overall reduction of the ship idle time, when entering additional TL, days; d - dispatch rate, $USA/vessel-day. In the second case, , - lump-sum rate for a given cargo turnover, $/t; k - percentage of increase in lump-sum rate due to the intensity of the cargo ship handling, when entering additional TL. In the third case, , l - growth of cargo turnover by increasing competitiveness, %, a corresponding increase in ship calls, which will increase the port charges can be also considered. , ΣТi+i - total idle time for use on processing ship ( + 1) TLs, is defined similarly ΣТi, but with the number of TLs on the processing vessel that is equal to (+1), day; - takes into account only those operating costs over the harbor (port), which are increased with the entry of additional TL; these are the costs for routine maintenance of cargo handling equipment, which are a part of a technological line and maintenance costs of one TL. Other categories of operating costs - Dockers wages, the costs of electricity, fuel, lubricants, general and administrative and other expenses are not changed. With a positive input of additional TL, above , is economically feasible for the port. Expediency of the entry of additional TL in the following versions is estimated similarly by comparing each subsequent with each previous one. When there is the first negative value further consideration stops and the previous positive option becomes the best one. It should be noted that the economic efficiency of entry of TL in each successive version is decreasing as the rate of decline in the lay time and accordingly the additional income of the port are falling, while the costs of the port(additional investment, operating costs and taxes) when entering each additional TL remain virtually the same. For example, if , the entry of the first additional TL reduces the time of cargo handling by 50 %, the second entry - by 33 %, the third - by 25 %, the fourth - by 20 %. The dependence of the income and expenses on the amount of TL and the algorithm of choosing the optimal amount of TL on the dockside is shown as the graph below in the figure. The graph of the dependence of the income and expenses on the amount of TL and the algorithm of choosing the optimal amount of TL on the dockside The graph shows that the growth of additional revenue by introducing additional TL tends to decrease. While the additional cost of the port grow uniformly, and the last variant with a positive valueis the most optimal. Substantiation of the choice of technology and technical equipment of berthing facilities (cargo handling terminal) In the second stage when comparing different technology options ("diverse mechanization schemes"), which found the best option handling equipment (the first stage), economic evaluation is based on absolute performance NPV for each of the considered options of technology. In this case, the value of all production elements of the handling complex such as piers, warehouses (the sizes of warehouses may vary for different technology options), operational platform, crane, rail and road ways are also taken into account. While determining the income not only the cost of materials handling at transshipment port system is taken into account, but also a part of the port charges designed to compensate the cost of infrastructure is considered. At this stage to determine the NPV the formula, presupposing the possible phased investment of the project, is used: , - net cash flow from the investment project to a specific type of the technology by a period, t; - investment costs for t periods on reloading equipment and engineering facilities for stevedoring seaport system of the technology; , net profit for the port from the project investment; AtP - amortization charge for the port. , - port income from the investment project; - operating costs at the port of the project include: Dockers wages, maintenance of port handling equipment and engineering facilities, maintenance of equipment and facilities of the port complex, fuel and energy complex for transshipment and others; - tax payments, including income tax. , - revenues for the cargo transportation; - revenues from the port charges; - port revenues from reduced ship idle time; , , - cost of port charges for one ship call, $USA /ship call. , - amortization charge for handling equipment; - amortization of engineering facilities. After determining the NPV for each technology, the preference is given to the highest value of NPV as the most effective one. The final choice is made after a comprehensive analysis of the project taking into account the discounted payback period, profitability index and internal rate of return.
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