%0 Journal Article %T Development of a model for predicting the safety characteristics of aviation transport systems over a time interval of several years %A Aseev, N.. %A Kushnikov, V.. %A Bogomolov, A.. %K aviation safety, aviation transport system, system dynamics, forecasting, system modeling, operatio- nal safety %J Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics %D 2025 %N 2025 %P 9 %I Astrakhan State Technical University