TY JOUR TI Using bayesian models and Monte Carlo methods to predict cyber threats KW cybersecurity KW cyber threat forecasting KW Bayesian models KW Monte Carlo methods KW risk analysis KW data leakage KW social engineering JO Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics AU Panilov, P.. PY 2024 IS 2024 PB Astrakhan State Technical University